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House Prices and Marketable Housing Supply in Greece: A Housing Utilization Perspective

Working Paper Series

House prices in Greece are rising. The natural first explanation is weak new supply: residential construction collapsed during the debt crisis and dwelling investment remains low relative to its pre-crisis level. This explanation is important, but incomplete. The aggregate dwelling stock did not disappear. A large number of dwellings physically exists, but not all of that stock is available, usable, or effectively supplied to households in the ordinary long-term market. Between 2011 and 2021, the number of dwellings listed for rent fell by 10%, and those for sale by 33%, despite a modest increase in the total housing stock. We interpret this as a fall in the marketable utilization of housing capital - the share of the stock that is effectively deployed to meet demand. Using a macroeconomic model calibrated to the Greek economy, we quantify the potential contribution of this decline in marketable utilization to housing market tightness. Holding other drivers constant, under broader utilization loss scenarios, the model implies real house-price effects of up to 19.1%, suggesting that reduced marketable utilization may account for a meaningful share of the observed nominal increase in house prices between 2018Q1 to 2025Q4.

The Working Paper can be downloaded through the link below.
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